Next Steps with Iran

Assuming the current multi-lateral negotiations fail, which appears very likely, what are the options with Iran?

1. Give them nuclear fuel in exchange for more monitoring


2. "Heavy sanctions"


3. Do nothing


4. Encourage internal upheaval by supporting Iranian reformers/revolutionaries


5. Regime change a la Iraq

Not a lot of great choices currently. North Korea exploited choices 1,2 and 3 above to get where they are today. I don't think current policy is against negotiation with Iran, however, to be pragmatic, you have an alternative approach when negotiations won't work.

This spectrum of choices illustrates the difference between stability-oriented "realism" and the Bush doctrine. The ex-state department authors of the Foreign Affairs article you cited are classical stability-promoting realists. The summary of the article is that multilateral negotiations are good because the result has been stability even though North Korea flouted agreements and nuclear-fuel bargains made throughout the 90's. However, North Korea is not the state-sponsor of terrorism that Iran is.

The Bush doctrine promotes freedom as the driving factor in fighting terrorism and increasing safety, and implies that stability as a goal is not enough. It's not at all clear how the US can engender free societies in places like Iran, but nuclear proliferation in terrorism-sponsoring states is a good reason to think about how to do that.